Political Risk – Can It Be Managed?
Presidential campaigns are interesting, intriguing -- but enigmatic. They dominate TV, radio, written news and the Internet. You can’t avoid them. But why this wild hoopla? Because getting elected is risky!
If there ever was a “make or break” business, seeking public office – especially the Presidency -- involves high risk. The stakes are enormous. Mud-slinging fills the air – all in the name of clarification. Sudden-death for one is sudden-glory for the other. No one gets “a little bit” elected.
Looking down from Mars, you would be perplexed at these gladiators. Hundreds, millions – if not billions of dollars are spent to make political opponents look risky, unworthy of investment.
If Risk Management is effective, politicians should be its prime user. Yet, the insurance industry doesn’t dare enter that field. Though it invented the phrase “Risk Management,” it’s a well-kept secret that it never actually manages risk – it only finances it! So insurance isn’t a solution for political risk.
Vetting – originally a horse-racing term for a veterinarian to confirm a horse was healthy enough to race -- is a frantic two-sided search to protect a candidate while inflicting major damage on all its opponents. It is likely the nearest primitive cousin to political risk management.
But political risk is not limited to politicians!
There’s the electorate – those mythical folks that seem to hold the keys of success – the power to either empower or destroy candidates. Ironically, it simultaneously creates and inherits its own high risk. Whether it elects a “no previous experience” contender or a “fully experienced” one, risk of disappointment abounds.
Dead people voting? Live folks prevented from voting? Some voters voting twice? These unanswered questions plague the purity of plebiscite – raising the risk of deceit, deception, and delusion.
Is it time for Risk Management’s traditional “identify, analyze, rank and control” methodology to be adopted for political risks?